Thursday, May 05, 2005

Richard Writes

From his nunnery-based bunker in the deepest wiles of Oxford West and Abingdon, Richard (sofa-ridden with blisters) has transmitted the following message:

"The exit polls are all wrong. The Lib Dems will make much better gains than the BBC are predicting and my Tory critics will soon be laughing from the other side of their dirty little racist faces".

I am tempted to agree with part of this analysis. As Tony King was just saying, the Lib Dems will have to make an awful lot of losses elsewhere in the country if they are to only gain 2 seats, given the wins they are predicting at the moment. What I don't agree with, however, is that the Tories will have a bad night. Much as this pains me - I want the right-wing half of the Tory party to shrivel and die so that the modernisers can restore some sense - the predictions they are making themselves suggest that gains of about 45 seem right (and possibly even higher). So as things stand I'm going to stick my neck out and say that Labour's majority may even be smaller than 66. This would surprise me greatly, but it would make staying up all night more interesting.