Wednesday, May 04, 2005

This Is A Lot More Interesting Than It Seems; My Predictions

I think this election still promises to be a lot more interesting than it looked for a long time. There is a massive number of margianl seats (some not marginal on paper by the results of 2001) and they are still very hard to call. Turnout will be crucial, as will tactical voting against the Tories and Labour (and, I guess, LibDems, but I can't think of any constituencies where that's the case).

There may end up being surprises in both directions, such that the net result is predictable, but this is a fascinating fight to watch.

My prediction is up on 65-85 to 70-90 seats for Labour's majority. I think the Tories will make incredibly minor progress, and the LibDems make a net gain of 10-20 seats.